It's been a long time since I've been active on the blog. Spencer and I began the blog not long before he was diagnosed with cancer so that took the wind out of both of our sails. Happily, after a long fight, Spencer is doing much better and will hopefully be back to work sometime in 2009. Until then I may weigh in here and there on market conditions, but as most people are aware it's new territory for the real estate industry so it's difficult to comment on what to expect for the near future. For now I have a "wait and see" attitude and am advising my sellers to do the same for now unless they must sell and advising my buyers to call their lenders and get off the fence as there really are some great deals out there.
Judy Huestis
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Monday, May 19, 2008
A Little Bit of Good News
Jim Wasserman reports the following in today's Sacramento Bee breaking news. Notice the median sales price in El Dorado County did not drop as much as in the surrounding counties.
Sac Bee report:
A surge of activity in April pushed Sacramento-area home sales to the highest levels in almost a year -- and produced the first year-over-year sales gains in Sacramento County in 37 months, DataQuick Information Systems reported Monday.
Overall, three counties -- Sacramento, Sutter and Yuba -- posted sales gains over the same time last year.
In April, 3,163 homes closed escrow in Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties during, according to La Jolla-based DataQuick. It was the first time sales broke the 3,000 barrier since July
The numbers confirm what many in the real estate industry have been saying in recent weeks: there's been a spate of buying and owners are getting multiple offers for discounted properties.
In Sacramento County, sales of new and existing homes totaled 1,961 in April, the highest since Sept. 2006, according to DataQuick.
The April sales tally was 26.3 percent higher than April 2007 -- the first time that year-over-year sales in the county have posted a gain since March 2005, DataQuick reported. Yuba County also posted a 23.3 percent year-over gain, its first in several years. Sutter County posted a 1.1 percent gain in year-over-year sales, its first in almost a year, according to DataQuick.
Elsewhere, sales were slower. Yolo County sales were down about 1.1 percent from the period last year -- after mostly double-digit monthly declines since the housing boom began to lose steam regionally in late 2005 and early 2006.
April sales in Placer County remained 8.5 percent below April 2007, according to DataQuick.
Besides the traditional spring-buying boost, what's driving sales in some counties? Prices have rapidly dropped with heavily discounted, bank-owned homes accounting for a majority of purchases in the eight-county capital region. That means the lower end of the housing market is fueling much of the surge.
Median sales prices -- where half the homes sell for more and half for less -- are down to Feb. 2003 levels in Sacramento County. The county's median sales price in April fell to $232,000 -- down 32 percent from a year ago and 40 percent off its Aug. 2005, high of $387,000.
The Sacramento Association of Realtors reported that 35.3 percent of sales in the county and in West Sacramento were for homes priced below $200,000 in April.
In Placer County only about 3 percent of sales are below $200,000, according to the Placer County Association of Realtors.
The county's median price in April was $352,000 -- roughly equal to prices in Oct. 2003, according to DataQuick. Prices for new and existing homes combined in Placer County are down nearly 22 percent from a year ago and down about one-third from an Aug. 2005 high of $525,000.
Elsewhere in the region:
• Median sales prices in April fell to $379,000 in El Dorado County, down nearly 12 percent from a year ago.
• Yolo County's median sales price dipped to $308,045, down nearly 27 percent from a year ago.
• Sutter County's April median was $221,500, down nearly one fourth from last year.
• The median Yuba County sales price was $199,500, down almost 31 percent from last year.
Sac Bee report:
A surge of activity in April pushed Sacramento-area home sales to the highest levels in almost a year -- and produced the first year-over-year sales gains in Sacramento County in 37 months, DataQuick Information Systems reported Monday.
Overall, three counties -- Sacramento, Sutter and Yuba -- posted sales gains over the same time last year.
In April, 3,163 homes closed escrow in Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties during, according to La Jolla-based DataQuick. It was the first time sales broke the 3,000 barrier since July
The numbers confirm what many in the real estate industry have been saying in recent weeks: there's been a spate of buying and owners are getting multiple offers for discounted properties.
In Sacramento County, sales of new and existing homes totaled 1,961 in April, the highest since Sept. 2006, according to DataQuick.
The April sales tally was 26.3 percent higher than April 2007 -- the first time that year-over-year sales in the county have posted a gain since March 2005, DataQuick reported. Yuba County also posted a 23.3 percent year-over gain, its first in several years. Sutter County posted a 1.1 percent gain in year-over-year sales, its first in almost a year, according to DataQuick.
Elsewhere, sales were slower. Yolo County sales were down about 1.1 percent from the period last year -- after mostly double-digit monthly declines since the housing boom began to lose steam regionally in late 2005 and early 2006.
April sales in Placer County remained 8.5 percent below April 2007, according to DataQuick.
Besides the traditional spring-buying boost, what's driving sales in some counties? Prices have rapidly dropped with heavily discounted, bank-owned homes accounting for a majority of purchases in the eight-county capital region. That means the lower end of the housing market is fueling much of the surge.
Median sales prices -- where half the homes sell for more and half for less -- are down to Feb. 2003 levels in Sacramento County. The county's median sales price in April fell to $232,000 -- down 32 percent from a year ago and 40 percent off its Aug. 2005, high of $387,000.
The Sacramento Association of Realtors reported that 35.3 percent of sales in the county and in West Sacramento were for homes priced below $200,000 in April.
In Placer County only about 3 percent of sales are below $200,000, according to the Placer County Association of Realtors.
The county's median price in April was $352,000 -- roughly equal to prices in Oct. 2003, according to DataQuick. Prices for new and existing homes combined in Placer County are down nearly 22 percent from a year ago and down about one-third from an Aug. 2005 high of $525,000.
Elsewhere in the region:
• Median sales prices in April fell to $379,000 in El Dorado County, down nearly 12 percent from a year ago.
• Yolo County's median sales price dipped to $308,045, down nearly 27 percent from a year ago.
• Sutter County's April median was $221,500, down nearly one fourth from last year.
• The median Yuba County sales price was $199,500, down almost 31 percent from last year.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
More Predictions from NAR
The following is text from a NAR media feed:
Little change is expected in existing-home sales over the next few months, before improving notably during the second half of the year, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market will come into clearer focus this summer. “Existing home sales could start to show a sustained increase within a few months, unless there are some additional economic problems or excessive inflationary pressure,” he said. “We’re looking for essentially stable sales in the near term, before higher mortgage loan limits translate into more sales in high-cost markets. The wider access to affordable credit should increase sales activity notably this summer as pent-up demand begins to be met.”
The Pending Home Sales Index...[indicates]“...an era of successive deep sales declines appears to be over,” Yun said.
Existing-home sales are likely to rise from an annual pace of 4.9 million in the first quarter to 5.9 million in the fourth quarter. With relatively weak activity in the first part of the year, existing-home sales for all of 2008 are forecast at 5.39 million, increasing 6.6% to 5.74 million in 2009.
“...steady liquidity improvements in the conforming jumbo-loan market will help prices recover in the second half of the year,” Yun said. The aggregate existing-home price will probably ease by 1.4% to a median of $215,800 for all of 2008 before rising 3.7% to $223,800 next year.
Yun noted that there will continue to be wide variations in regional housing market conditions. “Some parts of the country that can expect improvement include the Northeastern region and the oil-patch states of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas,” he said. With lower interest rates and flat home prices in many areas, NAR’s housing affordability index is forecast to rise 14 percentage points to 127.0 in 2008.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which has fluctuated recently, should average 5.8% in the second and third quarters, but trend up to an average of 6.3% in 2009.
“The economy will not grow in first half of the year,” Yun said. “However, the combination of recent fiscal stimulus enactment and the lagged impact of monetary policy will help jump start the economy in the second half.” Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 1.4% in 2008 and 2.4% next year. The unemployment rate is forecast to average 5.4% this year and 5.6% in 2009.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is projected at 3.4% in 2008 and 2.2% next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is likely to grow 1.2% this year and 3.0% in 2009.
Little change is expected in existing-home sales over the next few months, before improving notably during the second half of the year, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market will come into clearer focus this summer. “Existing home sales could start to show a sustained increase within a few months, unless there are some additional economic problems or excessive inflationary pressure,” he said. “We’re looking for essentially stable sales in the near term, before higher mortgage loan limits translate into more sales in high-cost markets. The wider access to affordable credit should increase sales activity notably this summer as pent-up demand begins to be met.”
The Pending Home Sales Index...[indicates]“...an era of successive deep sales declines appears to be over,” Yun said.
Existing-home sales are likely to rise from an annual pace of 4.9 million in the first quarter to 5.9 million in the fourth quarter. With relatively weak activity in the first part of the year, existing-home sales for all of 2008 are forecast at 5.39 million, increasing 6.6% to 5.74 million in 2009.
“...steady liquidity improvements in the conforming jumbo-loan market will help prices recover in the second half of the year,” Yun said. The aggregate existing-home price will probably ease by 1.4% to a median of $215,800 for all of 2008 before rising 3.7% to $223,800 next year.
Yun noted that there will continue to be wide variations in regional housing market conditions. “Some parts of the country that can expect improvement include the Northeastern region and the oil-patch states of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas,” he said. With lower interest rates and flat home prices in many areas, NAR’s housing affordability index is forecast to rise 14 percentage points to 127.0 in 2008.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which has fluctuated recently, should average 5.8% in the second and third quarters, but trend up to an average of 6.3% in 2009.
“The economy will not grow in first half of the year,” Yun said. “However, the combination of recent fiscal stimulus enactment and the lagged impact of monetary policy will help jump start the economy in the second half.” Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 1.4% in 2008 and 2.4% next year. The unemployment rate is forecast to average 5.4% this year and 5.6% in 2009.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is projected at 3.4% in 2008 and 2.2% next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is likely to grow 1.2% this year and 3.0% in 2009.
Friday, April 4, 2008
California Association Of Realtors:Why Buy Now?
The following is the exact text from one of CAR's customer handouts.
Why Buy a Home in Today’s Market?
Buying a home in today’s market may be challenging, particularly for those with credit problems or little saved to put toward a down payment. But there are many factors impacting the current housing market that make buying a home today a viable option.
Here are five reasons for buying a home today:
1 Interest rates on long-term, fixed, and adjustable mortgages are at historically low levels. The rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage is hovering just below 6 percent, while, by comparison, interest rates were hitting 8 percent and higher during the last market downturn in the late 1990s, and were between 10 and 12 percent at the height of the last housing boom in the 1980s. Lower interest rates make it easier to qualify for a loan, and your monthly payments are more affordable.
2 No one can put a price on the intrinsic value of homeownership. Home prices also reflect financial worth and, the good news is, across California the median sales price for a single-family home has been consistently rising for several decades. In short, housing remains a solid, long-term financial investment. While the pace of home appreciation has slowed over the last year, historical data suggest home prices will continue to appreciate over time. The projected median home price for a single-family home in California in 2008, for example, is $553,000. By comparison, the median price in 2000 was $241,350; $193,770 in 1990, and $99,550 in 1980. (source: C.A.R.)
3 The length of time a home remains on the market before it is sold has increased from roughly two weeks in 2004 to between eight and nine weeks in 2007. According to the unsold inventory index provided by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, it would take 16.3 months to sell all the homes on the market at the current sales pace, compared with 6.4 months in 2006. With more homes on the market for longer periods of time, you have more choices when it comes to selecting a home today.
4 The multiple-offer frenzy that dominated the latest housing boom has subsided, and there is less pressure on today’s home buyers to outbid one another. REALTORS® in California reported that in 2007 only 28 percent of homes sold had multiple offers, compared with 57 percent in 2004. (source: C.A.R.)
5 The credit industry crisis that has made securing a home loan difficult for many has led to heightened scrutiny of mortgage lenders. As a result, state and federal agencies have created protections for home buyers that were not in place a year ago. The U.S. Federal Reserve, for example, has proposed a plan to require lenders to confirm a borrower’s ability to afford a mortgage before making a loan and establishing guidelines for explaining subprime loan terms in order to better educate buyers. Many new public education and awareness campaigns, such as Freddie Mac’s “Don’t Borrow Trouble®” campaign, have been developed to help you achieve the dream of homeownership without the financial risks that led so many borrowers into trouble in recent years.
Why Buy a Home in Today’s Market?
Buying a home in today’s market may be challenging, particularly for those with credit problems or little saved to put toward a down payment. But there are many factors impacting the current housing market that make buying a home today a viable option.
Here are five reasons for buying a home today:
1 Interest rates on long-term, fixed, and adjustable mortgages are at historically low levels. The rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage is hovering just below 6 percent, while, by comparison, interest rates were hitting 8 percent and higher during the last market downturn in the late 1990s, and were between 10 and 12 percent at the height of the last housing boom in the 1980s. Lower interest rates make it easier to qualify for a loan, and your monthly payments are more affordable.
2 No one can put a price on the intrinsic value of homeownership. Home prices also reflect financial worth and, the good news is, across California the median sales price for a single-family home has been consistently rising for several decades. In short, housing remains a solid, long-term financial investment. While the pace of home appreciation has slowed over the last year, historical data suggest home prices will continue to appreciate over time. The projected median home price for a single-family home in California in 2008, for example, is $553,000. By comparison, the median price in 2000 was $241,350; $193,770 in 1990, and $99,550 in 1980. (source: C.A.R.)
3 The length of time a home remains on the market before it is sold has increased from roughly two weeks in 2004 to between eight and nine weeks in 2007. According to the unsold inventory index provided by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, it would take 16.3 months to sell all the homes on the market at the current sales pace, compared with 6.4 months in 2006. With more homes on the market for longer periods of time, you have more choices when it comes to selecting a home today.
4 The multiple-offer frenzy that dominated the latest housing boom has subsided, and there is less pressure on today’s home buyers to outbid one another. REALTORS® in California reported that in 2007 only 28 percent of homes sold had multiple offers, compared with 57 percent in 2004. (source: C.A.R.)
5 The credit industry crisis that has made securing a home loan difficult for many has led to heightened scrutiny of mortgage lenders. As a result, state and federal agencies have created protections for home buyers that were not in place a year ago. The U.S. Federal Reserve, for example, has proposed a plan to require lenders to confirm a borrower’s ability to afford a mortgage before making a loan and establishing guidelines for explaining subprime loan terms in order to better educate buyers. Many new public education and awareness campaigns, such as Freddie Mac’s “Don’t Borrow Trouble®” campaign, have been developed to help you achieve the dream of homeownership without the financial risks that led so many borrowers into trouble in recent years.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Opt-In to Opt-Out
Judy's recommendation is echoed by me. Not only does identity theft result from the way credit reporting agencies share information, these agencies also create big headaches for people looking to obtain credit.
As an example, a client comes to me and wants to apply for a mortgage. I pull her credit. When I do, Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax (the 3 credit reporting agencies) turn around and sells my client's personal contact info to other creditors who want to solicit to my client.
Let me repeat for emphasis: when a client decides to do business with me she needs to expect dozens of cold-calls from other lenders the moment I pull her credit.
I have no idea how this is legal, but the credit reporting agencies appear to be in bed with a lobbyist who pitches this scheme as capitalism at its finest. The only way a client can avoid this annoyance is to complete the http://www.optoutprescreen.com/ request PRIOR to me pulling her credit report.
Get out there and do it. It will protect your identity, and your sanity.
As an example, a client comes to me and wants to apply for a mortgage. I pull her credit. When I do, Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax (the 3 credit reporting agencies) turn around and sells my client's personal contact info to other creditors who want to solicit to my client.
Let me repeat for emphasis: when a client decides to do business with me she needs to expect dozens of cold-calls from other lenders the moment I pull her credit.
I have no idea how this is legal, but the credit reporting agencies appear to be in bed with a lobbyist who pitches this scheme as capitalism at its finest. The only way a client can avoid this annoyance is to complete the http://www.optoutprescreen.com/ request PRIOR to me pulling her credit report.
Get out there and do it. It will protect your identity, and your sanity.
Prevent ID Theft
Although this is more of a Matt post I am sharing this info due to concerns about identity theft. One source of id theft comes from the bad guys intercepting pre-screened offers received from credit card companies. They'll get a hold of one of these offers and fill out the info and submit the application and then they have a credit card in your name. Not good. Sacramento Bee's financial page advised contacting optoutprescreen.com to remove yourself from the pre-screened credit list. The info below was taken directly from their website. The process took only a few minutes and you have the option to opt out for five years or life and you can opt back in at any time.
Check it out.
http://www.optoutprescreen.com/
The is from the "about us" section of the website:
OptOutPrescreen.com is a centralized service to accept and process requests from consumers to "Opt-In" or “Opt-Out” of firm offers of credit or insurance. OptOutPrescreen.com is a joint venture among Equifax Information Services, LLC, Experian Information Solutions, Inc., Innovis Data Solutions, Inc., and TransUnion, LLC (collectively the "Consumer Credit Reporting Companies").
Under the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA), Equifax, Experian, Innovis, and TransUnion, are permitted to include your name on lists used by creditors or insurers to make firm offers of credit or insurance. The FCRA also allows you the ability to "Opt-Out", which prevents Consumer Credit Reporting Companies from providing your credit file information for firm offers of credit or insurance that are not initiated by you. If you want to remove your name from lists supplied by the four Consumer Credit Reporting Companies listed above for firm offers of credit or insurance, you will need to provide your personal information on the “Click Here to Opt-In or Opt-Out” link. Once you provide your information through this secure website, your name will be removed from inclusion on firm offer lists provided by all four companies. If you have previously completed a request to Opt-Out from receiving firm offers and would like to Opt-In, you may also complete your request on this website. The personal information you provide is confidential and will only be used to process your request. You can also complete this process via phone by dialing 888-5-OPT-OUT (888-567-8688).
OptOutPrescreen.com is the only internet website authorized by Equifax, Experian, Innovis and TransUnion for this purpose under the FCRA. Please note that, as a security precaution, consumers should never provide their personal information to any other company or person in connection with requesting Opt-In or Opt-Out services. OptOutPrescreen.com will not contact consumers via email, telemarketing or direct mail solicitations.
Equifax
Equifax Inc. (NYSE: EFX) is a global leader in turning information into intelligence. Equifax companies provide faster and easier ways to find, approve and market to the right customers. For consumers, Equifax companies offer easier instantaneous ways to buy products or services, and better insight into and management of their personal credit. Headquartered in Atlanta, Equifax reported annual revenue of over $1.2 billion in 2004, and employs over 4,500 employees in 12 countries in North America, Latin America and Europe. Equifax. Information That Empowers.
For more information, please visit www.equifax.com.
Experian
Experian is a global leader in providing information solutions to organizations and consumers. It helps organizations find, develop and manage profitable customer relationships by providing information, decision-making solutions and processing services. It empowers consumers to understand, manage and protect their personal information and assets. Experian works with more than 50,000 clients across diverse industries, including financial services, telecommunications, health care, insurance, retail and catalog, automotive, manufacturing, leisure, utilities, e-commerce, property and government. Experian is a subsidiary of GUS plc and has headquarters in Nottingham, UK, and Costa Mesa, California. Its 12,000 people in 26 countries support clients in more than 60 countries. Annual sales exceed $2.5 billion.
For more information, please visit www.experian.com.
Innovis
Since 1989, Innovis Data Solutions has been a consumer credit information repository that collects consumer credit data from credit grantors throughout the United States. The company is committed to protecting the privacy of consumers and preserving the quality, accuracy and integrity of consumer information.
Innovis provides information to credit grantors to assist in marketing, verification, authentication and fraud prevention. It is important to note that Innovis is not currently involved in providing services that can result in the denial of applications for credit, insurance or employment.
For more information, please visit www.innovis.com.
TransUnion
TransUnion is a leading global information solutions company that customers trust as a business intelligence partner and commerce facilitator. TransUnion offers a broad range of financial products and services that enable customers to manage risk and capitalize on market opportunities. The company uses leading-edge technology coupled with extensive analytical capabilities to combat fraud and facilitate credit transactions between businesses and consumers across multiple markets. Founded in 1968, Chicago-based TransUnion employs 4,100 associates that support clients in 29 countries.
For more information, please visit www.transunion.com.
The trademarks, service marks and logos (the "Trademarks") used in this website are registered and unregistered Trademarks. The Trademarks belong to Equifax, Experian, Innovis, TransUnion, Opt Out Services LLC and/or their respective owners. The Trademark owner has exclusive rights to the Trademarks. Any unauthorized use of the Trademarks is strictly prohibited. You may not display or use the Trademarks for any purpose without the written permission of Trademark owner.
Check it out.
http://www.optoutprescreen.com/
The is from the "about us" section of the website:
OptOutPrescreen.com is a centralized service to accept and process requests from consumers to "Opt-In" or “Opt-Out” of firm offers of credit or insurance. OptOutPrescreen.com is a joint venture among Equifax Information Services, LLC, Experian Information Solutions, Inc., Innovis Data Solutions, Inc., and TransUnion, LLC (collectively the "Consumer Credit Reporting Companies").
Under the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA), Equifax, Experian, Innovis, and TransUnion, are permitted to include your name on lists used by creditors or insurers to make firm offers of credit or insurance. The FCRA also allows you the ability to "Opt-Out", which prevents Consumer Credit Reporting Companies from providing your credit file information for firm offers of credit or insurance that are not initiated by you. If you want to remove your name from lists supplied by the four Consumer Credit Reporting Companies listed above for firm offers of credit or insurance, you will need to provide your personal information on the “Click Here to Opt-In or Opt-Out” link. Once you provide your information through this secure website, your name will be removed from inclusion on firm offer lists provided by all four companies. If you have previously completed a request to Opt-Out from receiving firm offers and would like to Opt-In, you may also complete your request on this website. The personal information you provide is confidential and will only be used to process your request. You can also complete this process via phone by dialing 888-5-OPT-OUT (888-567-8688).
OptOutPrescreen.com is the only internet website authorized by Equifax, Experian, Innovis and TransUnion for this purpose under the FCRA. Please note that, as a security precaution, consumers should never provide their personal information to any other company or person in connection with requesting Opt-In or Opt-Out services. OptOutPrescreen.com will not contact consumers via email, telemarketing or direct mail solicitations.
Equifax
Equifax Inc. (NYSE: EFX) is a global leader in turning information into intelligence. Equifax companies provide faster and easier ways to find, approve and market to the right customers. For consumers, Equifax companies offer easier instantaneous ways to buy products or services, and better insight into and management of their personal credit. Headquartered in Atlanta, Equifax reported annual revenue of over $1.2 billion in 2004, and employs over 4,500 employees in 12 countries in North America, Latin America and Europe. Equifax. Information That Empowers.
For more information, please visit www.equifax.com.
Experian
Experian is a global leader in providing information solutions to organizations and consumers. It helps organizations find, develop and manage profitable customer relationships by providing information, decision-making solutions and processing services. It empowers consumers to understand, manage and protect their personal information and assets. Experian works with more than 50,000 clients across diverse industries, including financial services, telecommunications, health care, insurance, retail and catalog, automotive, manufacturing, leisure, utilities, e-commerce, property and government. Experian is a subsidiary of GUS plc and has headquarters in Nottingham, UK, and Costa Mesa, California. Its 12,000 people in 26 countries support clients in more than 60 countries. Annual sales exceed $2.5 billion.
For more information, please visit www.experian.com.
Innovis
Since 1989, Innovis Data Solutions has been a consumer credit information repository that collects consumer credit data from credit grantors throughout the United States. The company is committed to protecting the privacy of consumers and preserving the quality, accuracy and integrity of consumer information.
Innovis provides information to credit grantors to assist in marketing, verification, authentication and fraud prevention. It is important to note that Innovis is not currently involved in providing services that can result in the denial of applications for credit, insurance or employment.
For more information, please visit www.innovis.com.
TransUnion
TransUnion is a leading global information solutions company that customers trust as a business intelligence partner and commerce facilitator. TransUnion offers a broad range of financial products and services that enable customers to manage risk and capitalize on market opportunities. The company uses leading-edge technology coupled with extensive analytical capabilities to combat fraud and facilitate credit transactions between businesses and consumers across multiple markets. Founded in 1968, Chicago-based TransUnion employs 4,100 associates that support clients in 29 countries.
For more information, please visit www.transunion.com.
The trademarks, service marks and logos (the "Trademarks") used in this website are registered and unregistered Trademarks. The Trademarks belong to Equifax, Experian, Innovis, TransUnion, Opt Out Services LLC and/or their respective owners. The Trademark owner has exclusive rights to the Trademarks. Any unauthorized use of the Trademarks is strictly prohibited. You may not display or use the Trademarks for any purpose without the written permission of Trademark owner.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
"The Housing Crisis is Helping the Housing Crisis"
The title of this blog is a quote from Spencer a few months back. It would be nice to try and make every title a reference or quote to Spencer, but we'll see how long I last...I'm not that clever. For now, it's a streak of 1.
At any rate, I wanted to address the dreaded adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) and how they have impacted the real estate market. For months now, they have been touted as the ugly poster child of the housing crisis, and rightfully so. Gobs and gobs of homeowners have lost their homes because their rates adjusted higher when it was time for the rate to reset. Ironically, this same scapegoat of our housing market may be the knight in shining armor we've all been waiting for. Let me explain.
Most forecasts for the 2008 housing market and the projected record number of foreclosures that will ensue are primarily based on the unprecedented number of ARMs that are set to adjust this year. In recent months, however, the market factors that determine how ARMs adjust have been in a free-fall. A year ago an ARM may have reset to 8.0% or more. Now, the average ARM is resetting somewhere in the mid 5%s. See this chart as an example of a rate index that influences these ARM resets, and you'll see what I mean. F-R-E-E F-A-L-L.
And why, do you ask? Well, this is where Spencer's quote comes into play. These ARM rates have been falling because the economy is sagging. The economy is sagging because, most would agrue, of our housing market. So, the housing crisis is leading to lower ARM rates that will help the housing crisis. "The housing crisis is helping the housing crisis."
What is the implication of these changing ARM interest rates? It has the potential to help many homeowners continue to afford their mortgage payments after their rates adjust, keep their homes, and avoid foreclosure. If many potential foreclosures are avoided in the coming months, it has the ability to stabilize our current housing market by preventing a big wave of foreclosed properties going up for sale.
I find it interesting that a factor that has the potential to turn around our housing market has not received much traditional media coverage. I thought it important to contrast the mass media hysteria circling this housing market with a sound, positive, albeit unsexy, perspective. I hope you enjoyed it.
At any rate, I wanted to address the dreaded adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) and how they have impacted the real estate market. For months now, they have been touted as the ugly poster child of the housing crisis, and rightfully so. Gobs and gobs of homeowners have lost their homes because their rates adjusted higher when it was time for the rate to reset. Ironically, this same scapegoat of our housing market may be the knight in shining armor we've all been waiting for. Let me explain.
Most forecasts for the 2008 housing market and the projected record number of foreclosures that will ensue are primarily based on the unprecedented number of ARMs that are set to adjust this year. In recent months, however, the market factors that determine how ARMs adjust have been in a free-fall. A year ago an ARM may have reset to 8.0% or more. Now, the average ARM is resetting somewhere in the mid 5%s. See this chart as an example of a rate index that influences these ARM resets, and you'll see what I mean. F-R-E-E F-A-L-L.
And why, do you ask? Well, this is where Spencer's quote comes into play. These ARM rates have been falling because the economy is sagging. The economy is sagging because, most would agrue, of our housing market. So, the housing crisis is leading to lower ARM rates that will help the housing crisis. "The housing crisis is helping the housing crisis."
What is the implication of these changing ARM interest rates? It has the potential to help many homeowners continue to afford their mortgage payments after their rates adjust, keep their homes, and avoid foreclosure. If many potential foreclosures are avoided in the coming months, it has the ability to stabilize our current housing market by preventing a big wave of foreclosed properties going up for sale.
I find it interesting that a factor that has the potential to turn around our housing market has not received much traditional media coverage. I thought it important to contrast the mass media hysteria circling this housing market with a sound, positive, albeit unsexy, perspective. I hope you enjoyed it.
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