More Predictions from NAR

The following is text from a NAR media feed:
Little change is expected in existing-home sales over the next few months, before improving notably during the second half of the year, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market will come into clearer focus this summer. “Existing home sales could start to show a sustained increase within a few months, unless there are some additional economic problems or excessive inflationary pressure,” he said. “We’re looking for essentially stable sales in the near term, before higher mortgage loan limits translate into more sales in high-cost markets. The wider access to affordable credit should increase sales activity notably this summer as pent-up demand begins to be met.”

The Pending Home Sales Index...[indicates]“...an era of successive deep sales declines appears to be over,” Yun said.

Existing-home sales are likely to rise from an annual pace of 4.9 million in the first quarter to 5.9 million in the fourth quarter. With relatively weak activity in the first part of the year, existing-home sales for all of 2008 are forecast at 5.39 million, increasing 6.6% to 5.74 million in 2009.

“...steady liquidity improvements in the conforming jumbo-loan market will help prices recover in the second half of the year,” Yun said. The aggregate existing-home price will probably ease by 1.4% to a median of $215,800 for all of 2008 before rising 3.7% to $223,800 next year.

Yun noted that there will continue to be wide variations in regional housing market conditions. “Some parts of the country that can expect improvement include the Northeastern region and the oil-patch states of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas,” he said. With lower interest rates and flat home prices in many areas, NAR’s housing affordability index is forecast to rise 14 percentage points to 127.0 in 2008.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which has fluctuated recently, should average 5.8% in the second and third quarters, but trend up to an average of 6.3% in 2009.

“The economy will not grow in first half of the year,” Yun said. “However, the combination of recent fiscal stimulus enactment and the lagged impact of monetary policy will help jump start the economy in the second half.” Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 1.4% in 2008 and 2.4% next year. The unemployment rate is forecast to average 5.4% this year and 5.6% in 2009.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is projected at 3.4% in 2008 and 2.2% next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is likely to grow 1.2% this year and 3.0% in 2009.